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Do you believe?
Gary Rowett spoke on the official website on Monday about how up to a dozen teams were still in the frame for promotion from the Championship including Blues. 12th placed Brentford trail Hull City by 16 points making the top half of the second tier a fairly tightly packed bunch. Is the Bromsgrove Ranieri a believer in the Promotion disco bus?
I’ve long held that this could indeed be our year. While I think the bookies are rarely wrong and that 150-1 on us to win the Championship is about right because it’s about as likely to happen as the mob from across the expressway staying up a quick check on oddschecker will tell you that you can get up to 20-1 (at the time of writing) on Blues to be promoted.
Surely this is just hubris talking? Can Blues actually do it though?
At this moment in time, Blues are in 8th place on 47 points. If you look at the last ten years worth of Championship tables, you can work out the average total points for 6th place (and thus a place in the playoffs) is 73.2. Last year was the highest it has been for some time at 78 while three seasons ago Brighton squeaked into the playoffs with just 68.
Taking the mean number of points means Blues need to pick up 26 points from the remaining 16 games – in my eyes not a particularly onerous task. Furthermore, it’s my notion (not backed up by scientific fact) that any team “on a run” going into the playoffs are going to make it all the way; thus if we do go on a run in the way Rowett talks about, we’ve got a chance.
It’s a big ask though isn’t it? A few injuries or suspensions and Blues could be in trouble…
I have to admit, I do worry about the thinness of the squad at times – particularly in defence. Barring a few aberrations Blues’ defence has been particularly mean of late. Consistency of selection has helped in that players do seem to be well versed in their roles but I always have that fear that a couple of slips will cause that confidence that has been built up to shatter. This weekend against Rotherham will be interesting to see how the defence bounce back after “five minutes of madness” cost the team three points against Sheffield Wednesday at St Andrew’s.
It’s weird, because I think some people see me as a doom-monger but I really do actually believe this year – starting this weekend. Rotherham have just sacked their manager, are bottom three, and yet Blues are 6-4 to win away at the New York stadium. Blues are taking a sell-out away crowd and are going to be looking to bounce back against a team fighting for it’s life at the bottom of the table. I’ve got a £50 free bet with Ladbrokes sports betting this weekend – can you guess where my money is going?
Do you believe?