Often Partisan

Why are BIH holding on?

One of the big questions that has been asked of late is why BIH are so intent on holding onto their share listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. With share value crashing by more 21% on Friday the question has been asked as to how much longer the HKSE will allow them to remain trading on the main board of the exchange.

I thought it would be worthwhile finding out exactly WHY the listing is seen to be worth so much – especially with doubt cast on the figures I’ve mentioned in some quarters. I’ve done what I can to research legal documents but as always I have to caveat that I’m not a stockbroker, an accountant or a lawyer and that it is worthwhile reading links I’ve attached to get your own understanding.

Why is the listing worth so much money?

The value of the main board listing is intangible. What that means is you can’t “sell” a main board listing; its value is more in what people will pay for a company to avoid going through an IPO (Initial Public Offering).

What it comes down to is how much it costs to go through the IPO process. I pulled this document off the web to see what that was and how much that would cost.

For a company to be listed on the main board of the HKSE (as BIH is), it needs to:

a) have no significant change in directorship in the three years prior to the IPO (although there are some exemptions if the company meets certain market capitalisation/revenue tests or is involved in long-term infrastructure of mining projects)

AND

b) either

i) have HK$20mil profit (circa £1.6mil) for the current trading year AND aggregate profits from the preceding two years of HK$30mil (circa £2.4mil) AND an expected market capitalisation of HK$200mil (£16mil)

or

ii) have a market capitalisation of HK$2 billion (£160mil) AND revenue of HK$500mil (£40mil) in its last audited accounts AND positive cash flow of HK$100mil (£8mil) aggregated over the past three years

or

iii) have a market capitalisation of HK$4 billion (£320mil) AND revenue of HK$500mil (£40mil) in its last audited accounts.

At any rate market capitalisation has to be above HK$200mil (£16mil) with 25% in public hands. If that public float isn’t met trading can be suspended until steps are taken to fix it. A lower public float of 15% will be acceptable if a company has a market capitalisation of HK$10 billion (£800mil). For those who aren’t aware, market capitalisation is how much a company is worth and it is calculated as number of shares in circulation multipled by value of shares.

The timetable given in the link shows that the process takes a minimum 3 months to go through all the procedures required to set up a listing.

What the upshot of this means is that if someone wants to trade as a company on the HKSE, they have to jump through a lot of regulatory hoops with their business to show it’s viable enough to do so – ie show that their company has made a lot of money and is worth a lot of money. If you’re already trading with what you want to do this isn’t a problem; however if you are an investor looking to use the market to help raise money for a project you want to undertake it’s much harder to launch a vehicle to do so onto the stock market.

It’s much easier to buy into a company that is already listed on the HKSE main board and then to use that as a vehicle for the project that the investor wants to undertake – much as Carson did with Grandtop when he wanted to buy Birmingham City. Thus it follows that as a company that is listed on the stock exchange, that listing has an intangible value – and from talking to people in Hong Kong investors will happily pay up to £30 or £40million for a company listed on the stock exchange to use as a vehicle.

But BIH isn’t worth that much?

This is the crux of the issue and why I think there is a possible scenario where we are heading for the end game. Right now, BIH are in a pickle. The shares have been consistently trading at a lower and lower value since trading in the shares was restarted and as a consequence, the market capitalisation has dropped further and further.

The holding company is struggling to raise money on the stock exchange because that involves issuing new shares – and the last conversion bond that the company was looking to float had shares converting at HK$0.10 – nearly three times what they are trading at right now. This means that deal is absolutely horrific for the investors and will not go through; BIH need to renegotiate the conversion price if they are to get the extra money in.

Yang Yuezhou can continue to sell shares at this moment in time as his bond was converted at a share value of HK$0.03, meaning even with shares as low as they currently are he’s making a healthy profit. With so many shares available to him – even if every one of the 400million shares sold on Friday was his, he would have a billion left to sell and he has a further four billion plus to convert – he can easily keep the price of the company down by continually dumping shares.

With the market capitalisation so low, the company as I see it could be a target for an investor looking for a listing. Even with Carson’s 6billion plus conversion shares to take into consideration, I’m reasonably sure it would be possible to pick the whole company up for less than the £30-40million quoted above. What I am hoping for is that Yang Yuezhou will indeed do that – pick up the company, sell off what shares he needs to to keep the public float and then go do whatever deal he wants to – and in the meantime sells the unprofitable football club he has no interest in. There would be some cleaning up needed to be done behind the scenes… but it is just possible that there could be a happy ending. However, I will stress that’s just a single possibility and I could well be wrong.

The market will reopen in a couple of hours and I think it will be interesting as to whether shares will now rally – or if we’ll see another colossal sell off.

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108 Responses to “Why are BIH holding on?”

  • AF says:

    In conventional companies the things that sustain the share price are profiits, future dividend earnings, prospects and sentiment. At the moment there is nothing to sustain the viability of the shares except the unpriced HKSE listing. I can see the share price fallling rapidly, as it has over the last few weeks and believe BIHL end game approaches.

  • Bluenosesol says:

    The pre-requisites for HKSE listing are a starting position for any would be new entrant. If you look at the BIHL business plan to launch a new business using the current BIHL shell, it doesnt come close to meeting the pre-requisites. (Initial investment £7.5m), Why oh why doesnt the HKSE simply bar these clowns?

  • chris says:

    Interesting thoughts Dan, but surely this will take months and unless as you’ve mentioned yesterday someone takes the helm and makes big decisions, then it looks like we are going down.
    Then the problem arises that will the consortiums interested now or in the recent past still be interested next year, with the last parachute payment come and gone, the club on the verge of relegation and maybe another youngster or another player of any value sold in January.

  • chris says:

    I fear its not as simple as getting rid of LC and paying him off, there is also Watson and Thompson in the equation.
    There is the issue of paying off his backroom staff who may not want to stay but will stay till they are paid off too.
    Then any new manager may want his own backroom staff which means we may miss out on the man we want because we can’t afford to get rid of the current backroom staff.
    The BIHL board don’t seem bothered what is happening on the pitch or in the backroom, only in the HKSE.
    They are creating the customer apathy to the major part of their own business.
    Unbelievable attitude.

  • chris says:

    Is he gambling on selling now and making 100% profit to re-invest later because he thinks the price will fall further and he can buy back double the amount of shares.
    Or is he bailing out with a profit before the price reaches his bond price of 0.03 cents?

    • AF says:

      If I were Yang I would definitely bail out before the shares hit the conversion price of 0.03 and then consider buying at 0.015. Buy borrowing off him BIHL could have planted the seeds of their own destruction?

  • AussieBlue says:

    Shares down again to .043 HKcents at 1:30pm Australian time. These shares are headed for ‘penny share’ status – which is where Carson claimed to have made most of his pile.

    So by the time he’s out…BIHL will be ‘penny shares’ – worth one HK cent (fraction of 1p)..and Carson can buy some up and then grow the company in garment/rag trading and entertainment…then buy a football club; then…………

    …it’s all so depressing.

  • Berkshire Blue says:

    Alternatively YY may be someone who is just looking to make a quick profit from the situation (the shares are still 50% above the price he paid) with no intention of ever taking charge of the company and embarking on a project.

    For this whole scenario to play out, firstly an investor would have to come in and buy shares up, secondly he would have to take control of the board, thirdly he would have to raise further investment, fourthly he would have to do a deal to acquire whatever venture he had in mind and then ,and only then as far as I can see, he could dispose of BCFC. Even if this were to start tomorrow it would take a long time….by which time , at the current rate of progress we might well be a League 1 club (or worse).

  • bluearmyfaction says:

    The listing would be worth something if there were a number of vehicles looking to get themselves listed on HKSE, so got involved in a bidding war to take over a moribund listed company. Is there any sign of even ONE vehicle being interested in listing?

  • Agent McLeish says:

    What’s the latest on PP. Is he still refusing to budge? Assume he is not being paid then.

  • Matt says:

    ‘ I think there is a possible scenario where we are heading for the end game.’ I don’t like the sound of that.

  • blue lizard says:

    PP is like the fat uncle no one wants at the family wedding..everything he becomes involved in becomes a farce or turns to mush..eg sale of club ..now he can’t even f**k off properly!! as for the rest of it shares etc? it is all smoke and mirrors as far as I’m concerned and I just don’t trust anyone involved. A happy ending would be nice but those are available in cheap massage parlours and these lot have been shafting us for long enough!!

  • RichardM says:

    Does the HKSE have the power to strip BIHL of it’s listing? Would it any have any motivation to do this? Sounds to me that if the HKSE had the legal authority and will to do this – that would be the end game – what use to BIHL would BCFC be if they lost their HKSE listed status? Surely BIHL cannot be doing any favours foe the global reputation of the HKSE? If this did happen, BIHL would have no choice but to sell to the highest bidder,oOr have I missed a point here?

  • Eddie says:

    I am a self employed electrician and I will be floating my business on the HKSE this week.
    it seems an easy way of making money without doing anything

  • Agent McLeish says:

    I still don’t buy the fact that BIHL are holding out due to the share listing value – there has to be more to it than that. I think maybe they are biding their time while the office shredder is flat out.

  • nicko says:

    if push came to shove they will try to off load our club which would be intresting if a new buyer let them hang just like they have left other potential buyers hang

  • dave mann says:

    ide rather talk about on field matters but there just as bad and after saturday ive lost all belief about not being involved in a relegation battle…..off field just drags on and on and on and this winters going to be one of the longest coldest and most deppresing periods in our history as weve got no one left to sell in january so no money no descent players and no hope…..i think new owners and league one football is the best we can hope for next season and start all over again but i imagine it will only be relegation to look forward to, sorry for being so negative but i rushed back of my holiday to watch that garbage saturday and was not happy..and thats putting it mildly!!! KRO.

    • Dino Tiltoni says:

      I think being relegated in May might have speeded up the sale process.

      We do have players left to sell, by all accounts Gray has been measured up for a Liverpool shirt and Arthur is attracting scouting attention too.

  • Tony says:

    Dave have you posted on here in the last 10 days or so?

    • dave mann says:

      no Tony ive been away and i tend to switch off when on holiday but my son keeps me in touch and ive been well informed about what is not going on more so than what is going on so havent posted since thursday week ( 9th october) …..just totaly fed up with the whole shebang to be honest mate and refering to Dinos point about gray and arthur we might get £1 million for the pair so ime not holding out to much hope but at present its a shambles and i cant see any light at the end of our long road ime afraid but i hope ime wrong and the light will shine sooner rather than later. KRO.

  • tttpaule says:

    Because our club is in turmoil & our owners are invisible & won’t talk to the fans we go to the games on a downer, what happens then we watch 90 mins of garbage go home depressed & listen to Clarks excuses (i took Cottrill off to generate change) what by putting Novak there!! What a genius you are Mr Clark. I agree its not all Clarks fault if we had owners with even half a brain he would have gone 2 years ago. In all the years going down to watch Blues I haven’t felt so negative about the situation, i can’t see the idiots selling the Club & i don’t believe anyone here can predict what is going on in BIHL so the football situation is only going to get worse & that should be the only thing us fans should be interested in.

  • Art says:

    Clarks position appears to be 100 % save as I don’t think for a moment that the football side of the business matters. Getting rid of Clark and his management team will probably cost around £750k so I really can’t see them paying out that sort of money because they just aren’t interested in what going on.Its purley about recouping their money and getting the best deal.In the meantime the footballing side of the business is in free fall and Clark is safe until the new owners kick him out.

    It’s just absolutely ludicrous and Clark should personally feel ashamed of his performance and do the honourable thing -resign.

  • tttpaule says:

    Its sad to say Art but You are right Clark’s told the evening mail he’s going nowhere & if he were a honourable man he would have quit last year when he must have realised the job was to big for him. Trouble is would you walk away from a hefty pay off? Not sure i would if i was being honest. KRO

  • Neil says:

    Sacked L C at last

  • dave mann says:

    what was you saying Art ?……lee clark sacked along with steve watson….now lets see whats in store. KRO.

  • Eddie says:

    Gooooooooonnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnneeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee

  • chudlt says:

    At last!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! He’s Gone.

  • Neil says:

    Come on then all who do you think is going to replace LC

  • dave mann says:

    maybe we can have gary rowett now and they can have lee clark as compensation….seems about the right level for both managers and seems a logical fix but maybe pavlakis has already got someone else lined up but who?????…..seriously though i would like to thak lee clark for is efforts though he was seriously out of his depth and hope he gets a job at a lower level where he realy belongs…now for the turn around!!! KRO.

  • Will says:

    half the job done, now we just need to change the board as well

  • StaffsBlue says:

    Let the games begin!

  • bluenose08 says:

    I don’t like to see any manager sacked I prefer it if they hold their hands up and walk away but as it is often said football is a results business. bring back ch !

    • Tms blues says:

      Clark had seasons of disgraceful home results after which to walk but he wasn’t going to do so whilst he had a contract to be bought out. He just wasn’t a bright fella… He was an enthusiastic grafter but never a leader and certainly not a decisive clear thinker and decision maker… He’s at best an able no 2 to a tough leader needing a lieutenant .

      • Chas says:

        Only just seen this news , I have to agree with Bluenoes tho, I don’t like to see any manager sacked, but LC was way our of his ability zone and should have been sacked two years ago.

  • Tms blues says:

    Hurray ! 2years too late but hey now we stand a chance if we can find a manager with inspirational and motivational skills. Bet we win next home game. I’m not sure about Rowett . I’d prefer Malkie McKay who’s in need of rebuilding his career. He also has experience of dealing with modest budgets. Steve Clarke would also be a useful pick I think he was badly treated at baggies who ejected him prematurely. I don’t feel too sorry for LC he’s led a charmed existence and has kept his job far too long considering he had a 28% win record in over 100 games and 2 wins at home in the last year!

  • StaffsBlue says:

    Megson would still be my choice. He has the experience, the ability to knock a squad into shape fairly quickly and he knows the area. I know he wouldn’t be most fans choice, but he gets the job done.

  • Neil says:

    Malky Mackay would be good for me

    • Tms blues says:

      He’s not in the betting but I agree. Rosette is favourite. Steve Clarke would be another option and of course hughton is still around but it may need someone tougher like McKay I reckon to lead us onward and upward.

  • StaffsBlue says:

    Whoever the next manager turns out to be, I have zero confidence in anyone at BIHL knowing wtf they’re doing… so I’ll be pleasantly surprised if they get it right.

  • dave mann says:

    if i was going for experience because as you rightly said staffs rowett is not proven at this level ide go for …………………paulo di canio!!!!!! ….no only joking…any ideas? KRO.

  • dave mann says:

    paul robinson????????…..no no sorry only joking again. KRO.

    • StaffsBlue says:

      Looking round the boards at the suggestions only makes me shake my head in disbelief. This could get very messy. :-/ Sky’s latest betting doesn’t fill me with any confidence either.

  • Will says:

    Roy Keane LOL

  • richard di says:

    Liam daish

    Or a manager known for good football

  • StaffsBlue says:

    Just read this comment from a poster called Sandman on SHA.

    ‘My 2nd choice would be Megson. He isn’t the most popular or progressive of managers, but he was doing a more than decent job at Wednesday before he was sacked. He had them 3rd in the league, they’d just beaten their arch rivals, and he had the 3rd highest win ratio of any Wednesday manager in their history.’

    At least I’m not alone. :-)

  • Neil says:

    From birmingham mail

    Gary Rowett 3/1, Owen Coyle 4/1, Brian McDermott 8/1, Chris Hughton 8/1, Tony Mowbray 12/1, Paolo Di Canio 14/1, Billy Davies 16/1, Dougie Freedman 16/1, Mike Phelan 20/1, Aidy Boothroyd 20/1, Craig Levien 20/1, Malky Mackay 20/1, Alex McLeish 20/1, Jimmy Floyd Hasselbaink 20/1, Karl Robinson 20/1, Gianfranco Zola 20/1, ​Ole Gunnar Solksjaer 25/1, Derek McInnes 25/1, Gary McAllister 25/, 1Dennis Wise​ 33/1.

  • ChrisG says:

    I think it’s pretty obvious who will be blues next manager, he’s said a few times over the last year or so he’d love another go & that’s Trevor Francis. I’sure it won’t be Rowett as we can’t afford to pay for someone from another club. I see on the bm website a lot of fans wanting Hughton back, personally I wouldn’t give him the time of day. I wouldn’t mind seeing Steve Clark or possibly Zola but we probably couldn’t afford them

    • StaffsBlue says:

      Ditto on Hughton. Clarke I think will wait for a Prem job. Zola didn’t pull up any trees at West Ham and, after a good half a season, failed at Watford. Not sure how good a job he’d do tbh.

  • blue lizard says:

    Brian McDermott…..

  • Art says:

    Chris Hughton is my choice.

  • blue says:

    if they can get him Tony Pulis.

  • StaffsBlue says:

    Hughton would be the last name on my list, but if, by some stroke of bad luck, he did get the job, I’d support him 100%… through gritted teeth.

    • Tony says:

      Agree Staffs not Hougton , not so much that he walked out on us, but because I never really rated him anyway.

      • StaffsBlue says:

        People seem to forget, he made some bad mistakes himself (eg Southampton away) but, he had an almost successful season. But it was quite obvious he was never going to stay beyond one season and, if he’d been upfront and honest about that, instead of waffling in interviews when asked, I’d have had much more respect for the guy. But it’s all about opinions.

        • steve says:

          Why was it obvious he’d only be there for one season. If the board had been up front with him,he may have stayed.

          • StaffsBlue says:

            Not once did I ever hear him say he’d like to stay on next season, not even when alluded to in interviews. And from what I’ve heard/read, he knew exactly what was happening and that players would be sold and his budget cut…. and he simply didn’t fancy it. IMO, it’ll be a sad day if he ever comes back.

          • steve says:

            I didn’t hear him say he wouldn’t be here.In fact i never heard the question asked. The only reason Clark stayed is because nobody wanted him.If you think he wouldn’t have gone for a better offer,you’re fooling yourself.

          • steve says:

            He was also told there would be new owners.

  • Richard Granfield says:

    I would like Tony Pulis, but realistically Mike Phelan.
    Best wishes to Lee Clark for the future.

  • richard di says:

    Mike phelan said he ran man utd for the last few seasons of fergies reign. I would like to see what he is made of. Not interested in the usual suspects of jobless failures.

  • Shirley Blue says:

    Just heard the news about Clark. Absolutely delighted. Two years too late.
    Chris Hughton for me.

  • Oldbluenose says:

    Money will be the key factor, Some quoted names would not take the chance with Blues [ reported ] finances as they are,!!.
    We really cannot afford to have a ” rookie manager ” taking charge whilst in this parlous situation, !!.
    Sorry for Lee Clark, — The man, — but he needs to work as a No, 2, to lrarn from a pro,?.

  • Tony says:

    Not had a drink for 10 years but I’m going to have a couple tonight I feel elated. Just a pity he was no tman enough to do the decent thing and walk.
    Very well done MR Paviakis for finally doing what was desperately needed,congratulations all round.
    Tony Pullis would be brilliant but realistically Id go for Gary Megson, hes done a good job at this level ,as Staffs says he knows the area and was harshly treated by the Albion.
    Rowet is not ready for this level yet

    • StaffsBlue says:

      It was probably time for the man to go and I tend to agree, that if he’d resigned, he may have saved some face. But, it’s only human nature that, when everyone is telling you to do something, you do the opposite. He’s no different to the rest of us really. I’m disappointed it didn’t work out for him and I fully respect him as a football man and hope he finds another job soon, hopefully with better owners.

      What I do find sad, is the way some people are rejoicing and uttering the most revolting insults. He’s not Saddam or Gaddafi ffs. He probably deserved the sack, yes, but he doesn’t deserve being demonised by supporters. It leaves a nasty taste in the mouth. I hope for his sake, the next manager doesn’t lose his first home game.

      • Shirley Blue says:

        I have never rated him but I dont blame him for hanging on for the payoff. I just think this should have happened a lot, lot earlier. At least they have given themselves some time to get a replacement in before the transfer window so that person gets a chance to assess the squad.
        At least someone appears to be making decisions at the club now. Lets hope they get the next one right.

        • StaffsBlue says:

          The thing is SB, if we do go down this season, who will get the blame…. Lee Clark, who was sacked in October? Will it be the new manager? Or will it be the person who sacked Clark and appointed the new manager? I’ll be interested to see. I think the choice of the next manager is crucial to the rest of the season.

        • steve says:

          It should have happened at the end of last season.

          • Shirley Blue says:

            It should have happened after the Barnsley game two years ago. There had already been some shambolic performances before then but that was as bad as anything I have ever seen.

          • StaffsBlue says:

            Both points, although valid, are irrelevant now. Talk about Clark is also irrelevant. It’s past and should be left there. What happens from today is all that matters now. Tomorrow is a new day, let’s focus on the team and the new manager, whoever that might be.

  • Chas says:

    Agree 100 % about the name calling, the Mail website has a lot of these types , a shame really , he was out of his depth but cant really blame him for that.
    And about my question earlier(I will post it again, hope Dan doesn’t see it . Staffs, off line question, but have you and I posted friendly messages on others Boards/Forums ? If not , your style of post is very alike another esteemed poster)

    • StaffsBlue says:

      No Chas. I’m not a member of any boards at all and don’t post on them. I do read them though. I stopped using forums about 4 years ago, unless you count Digital Spy. :-)

  • Chas says:

    OK, Staffs. The bloke I thought you were is from Staffs as well, a gentleman, like yourself. Always a balanced comment

  • Neil says:

    Tomross quoted just on the radio that 4x prem
    Managers rang him today and said they would
    Like the job interesting

  • steve says:

    Wasn’t Steve Clarke at the game on Saturday. I hope it is him.My “Clark out” banner won’t need much adjusting.If they have phoned him,i would have thought it would be midland managers.Please not Megson.

  • RichardM says:

    Well, finally got what I wanted and now feel really sorry for Lee Clark. But genuinely the best thing for both parties. Hope Lee Clark gets himself sorted with something quickly, but in my IMO he’s assistant manager material (hope he proves me wrong).

    Rowett for me, or Karl Robinson. People are suggesting Steve Clark, Gary Megson and others who are experienced at this level – my question to them (or concern if you like) is that I’m betting not one of them has had to build a team on a shoe-string budget. THATS WHY I’d opt for up and coming, like Rowett or Robinson. If we could TF in as advisor all the better.

    Hughton definately no. Have people forgotten the contemptful way he left the Blues previously?

  • Tony says:

    Is this another fanciful notion from TR?

  • Blue_Fire says:

    This decision was long overdue. I’m fed up of people going on about the off the field situation. Clark knew this when he took the job. It’d be interesting to turn the clock back to June 2012 and ask him whether he thinks 3 homes wins out of 29 is acceptable! I’d expect a Sunday league park manager to do better than that! I’m surprised no one has mentioned another ex Blues player…Mark Cooper. He’s doing a good job and playing good football at Swindon. My preferences though would be Malkay Mackay or Brian McDermott.

  • Chas says:

    Well, a name that hasn’t been mentioned, an Ex PremiershIp manager, won loads in his time, I GIVE YOU…..Big Ron Atkinson…

  • steve says:

    New manager in by the time we play the Dingles.

  • Chris W says:

    The changes have begun.
    Thanks for another easy to follow breakdown on the financial side of \Blues, hopefully this will lead to a new long term strategy at the club.
    KRO+DNM

  • Aussiebrum says:

    BIHL Shares are up 50% in price today and turnover is almost 600 million.


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