Often Partisan

Share Prices and Gala Dinners

After a frenetic few days following relisting, the share price of Birmingham International Holdings seems to have stabilised at around the HK$0.27 mark – nearly double what the price was when the share were suspended back at the end of June 2011.

I think the way the stock prices rose after the initial expected slump has caught many of us off guard. I will confess that I expected share prices to tumble when the stock was relisted but then I expected them to stay lower – not to have risen as dramatically as they have done and this is probably why I’m not a stockbroker.

There is a feeling here that BIH is a worthless shell without BCFC; and of course having seen first hand what has happened at St Andrews I think there is a feeling that the club isn’t worth a great deal – certainly not the £32million figure that Carson had been touting around as a purchase price. However, despite BCFC making up almost all of the BIH turnover there is an intangible value to BIH that I think people have missed and is potentially the reason why people are still investing in the company.

As a rule, it is easier to buy a company that is already listed on the stock exchange in Hong Kong than it is to launch one. Thus, because BIH has main board listing status that in itself has an intrinsic value. Whilst the shares were suspended, some of that value was lost as it meant that shares couldn’t be traded or placed and new investment couldn’t be sought on the market but with that suspension lifted that is no longer an issue – which in turn shows another reason why BIH were working so hard to get the shares relisted. From what I understand, it’s more possible that people such as Yang Yuezhou are investing in BIH as they want the main board listing more than anything else such as the football club.

That of course doesn’t explain what a company like Beijing Liangzhu International Media want with a stake in BCFC. Efforts to find detail on the company have drawn a blank and whilst it’s true that China has a different take on the internet due to the way the government there censor online sites I am becoming increasingly uneasy as to who these people are. I think it’s important that should the deal go through (payment has to be made to BIH by Saturday) then both BLIM and BIH need to talk to us in the public domain with at least a broad outline of how they see the deal working; how they will look to “expand the brand name” in the People’s Republic and what experience BLIM will bring to the club.

In the meantime, Carson and BIH must be feeling happy with themselves; word has reached me of two gala dinners in the last couple of weeks celebrating the relisting of shares along with early celebrations for Carson’s 54th birthday (which of course coincides with the anniversary of us winning the League Cup on February 27th). Despite rumours of discord Peter Pannu was a speaker at one of the dinners, along with BIH chairman Cheung Shin and Pollyana Chu. Chu’s presence is interesting; with her buying and selling a large chunk of shares in the days since relisting it appears she is back doing business with Carson again for the first time in three years – whether that is significant I do not know.

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70 Responses to “Share Prices and Gala Dinners”

  • B25dave says:
    February 19, 2014 at 11:14 am

    are debts being settled here,the opportunity to make money in the trading may help offset losses made on original investment ?

    i know it would take some making back,and no names mentioned naturally

    feel free to delete comment if inappropriate

  • Kazakblue says:
    February 19, 2014 at 11:18 am

    Hmmmm, so Pollyana surfaces yet again

  • DoctorD says:
    February 19, 2014 at 11:22 am

    Dan — “rumours of discord”…do you mean discord at the meeting, or discord back in Birmingham?

  • Andyblue says:
    February 19, 2014 at 11:27 am

    Thanks Dan. What is causing your uneasy with BLIM exactly? It is sickening to think of the big wigs at BIHL patting themselves on the back whilst the company’s only real asset is in a desparate fight to retain its status in the second tier of English football. A fight the club might well lose because of the poor stewardship the current owners are responsible for in the last two and half years in my opinion.

  • Jaffa says:
    February 19, 2014 at 11:41 am

    Smoking mirrors my friends.

  • andy says:
    February 19, 2014 at 11:42 am

    césar parties while rome burns

  • TonyE says:
    February 19, 2014 at 11:45 am

    Dan, did you watch the prog on BBC2 last night re China and their finances. I know it was about the country and not a specific company, but the suggestions contained therein were alarming and may explain why the shares are doing much better than anticipated, the rich over there are buying everything and anything in the hopes that eventually they will make a profit, ring any bells?

  • Mickey07 says:
    February 19, 2014 at 12:05 pm

    Feck me gala dinners for these “specialists in failure” that run bcfc…..its one big jolly while the club treads water against relegation,I hope they feckin choke on there dinners….cant wait for the 28th and hopefully he will be a goner…

  • Cyprus Blue says:
    February 19, 2014 at 12:18 pm

    Do you know the accrued losses? This has a value, as it will stop a company from paying taxes on profits in the future. In the UK its about 10p in the £, but as corporation tax is lower in HK, it may be below this figure. Surely the reason why the share price is so high is down to the fact that they might go into oil and gas, and the army of penny share punters that speculate on things like this. The listing is not worth much at all, and if a company were to reverse into them usually original shareholders get diluted out of existence, and in turn profit.

    • Paul Carter - a lover of BCFC he says:
      February 19, 2014 at 12:52 pm

      Come off it Cype. An investor don’t just wake up one day and think ‘Oh I heard BIH are going into oil and gas. Think I’ll put a few hundred grand in’ any investor does his homework. They will know that BIH have no track record of any kind and run a mile. Whatever the attraction is it sure aint oil exploration. Our new Greek guy has made a killing, seems like a very competent share trader.

    • almajir says:
      February 19, 2014 at 2:08 pm

      I think they’re in the accounts – there is something in there about tax implications.

  • tmsblues says:
    February 19, 2014 at 12:45 pm

    Unlike most other PLC businesses where each year a snapshot of performance is published, the fortunes of football businesses are in the public domain almost every week. We can all see results, the number of supporters attending, the likelihood of PL or parachute monies available, the performance and likely value of key employees(players) and also have at least a weekly bulletin from the local business leader(team manager). So why in the present circumstances do the Chinese want to invest and stabilise the share price so highly. It seems to me they are buying into some dream scenario of business jam tomorrow. In other words they are gambling on what might happen if Carson’s dreams come true. The Chinese are great gamblers and are attracted by the possibility of unimaginable (and probably unrealistic) results if they take the plunge. The re emergence of Pollyanna Chu and you could argue a major part of Carsons defence, was based on Gambling to earn a fortune, but its difficult to see how the dream is based on BCFC because our results and prospects most notably at home, are not going to help convince anyone to buy right now. So there is something else that is being ‘sold’ to these investors / punters to support the belief in the Gamble! So assuming the Premier league isn’t going to happen for us soon then diversification of BIH’s business is the essential mainstay of a dream plan. Whatever that turns out to be it needs to happen soon otherwise the true value of a business totally reliant on an ailing football club will turn up in the trading price. Carson’s charm will at some stage have to be replaced by genuine business spread and profitable business. At the moment Carsons friends are coming to his aid and holding onto their shares so they believe the dream might happen if it does it might just put an end to our nightmare !!

  • Chris W says:
    February 19, 2014 at 12:51 pm

    The upsurge in share prices on re-listing wasn’t really a surprise as it was expected, but then a fall to a more realistic level. They have remained and seem to have stabilised at a higher level than expected. Nothing is coming across from PP despite his comment on being more open and forth-coming in keeping supporters updated.
    The programme referred to was interesting with regards to mainland China and the rich buying into everything, I suppose a new listing offers a potential early killing as the shares rise, be interesting to see if they sell quickly and make a fair profit.
    I suppose even a condemned man is entitled to a hearty supper, maybe these “Gala Dinners” are CY’s before he faces years of bread and water or maybe even some gruel.
    Pollyanna Chu caused quite a stir the last time she was on the scene and has been investigated for certain trading irregularities, she was also a major financier during CY’s buy-out from G/S/G.
    Do you know if the bridging loan she financed was ever repaid, if not could she be looking to move back and take control?
    KRO+DNM

  • The Flying Pig says:
    February 19, 2014 at 12:58 pm

    Extending the point about the intrinsic value; presumably the supposed oil/gas exploration would be something more tangible for investors and so worthy of a punt of a few HKD?

    Perhaps BIHL will diversify and then, when they strike oil, the value will go through the roof such that BCFC becomes something that may be disposed of without so much fuss… or perhaps they would then invest the proceeds in BCFC and we’d be mega rich?

    All pretty pointless speculation on my part, but would we still want CY et al if they had the money? Not for me, thanks; they’ve cooked their goose [or the Chinese equivalent]

    • mark says:
      February 19, 2014 at 2:47 pm

      yeah right you would turn down the chance to return to the premiership…… or would you be one of those spite your nose if we returned and carson was still at the helm……you wouldn’t go because he was still here……… i wait with bated breath with your opinion………..

      • The Flying Pig says:
        February 19, 2014 at 5:02 pm

        Mark,
        First of all, if the Club were back in the Prem I would go; in one way the owners of our club are as irrelevant to me as I am to them. Of course I would want the club to be in the Prem; I just wouldn’t really want the current owners to continue any longer than they have to. My point was more that my preference would be for them to disassociate themselves from BCFC – even if they were mega-rich that would not change my view.
        I will always appreciate the Cup win and they played some part in that, but I really think they’ve treated us all like sh*t [how many references are there in here to the lack of communication and then there’s the various fees/salaries being paid out when the rest is going to the dogs] and so I would much rather they went. If they became mega-rich and invested it in the Blues then we might be successful but it wouldn’t mean that I would forgive them for our current problems. Money can’t buy my love!!

    • steve says:
      February 19, 2014 at 3:49 pm

      If he is not guilty i don’t really see a problem.It’s Pannu i don’t want involved in the club.Pannu has said that Yeung knows he has to sell the club.

  • mark says:
    February 19, 2014 at 1:01 pm

    Excellent new Daniel no need to be flat and deflated…
    Gala and birthday’s happy times ahead.
    Hopefully with a win at blackpool…….too top it off.

  • mark says:
    February 19, 2014 at 1:12 pm

    Looks like a happy ending for your upcoming book, possible film?

  • Neil says:
    February 19, 2014 at 1:32 pm

    Dan if carson is found not guilty would he get
    Compensation for interest lost on his funds
    While his assets have been frozen ?.

  • DoctorD says:
    February 19, 2014 at 2:05 pm

    Unlucky last night — if Wednesday had leaked a second goal at Derby, we’d have risen 1 place to 17th on goal difference. Still Barnsley losing and Yeovil drawing are good results for us.

  • sam says:
    February 19, 2014 at 2:39 pm

    Almajir has there been much reaction following the publication of fans protect in Chinese with banners and posters?

  • Art Watson says:
    February 19, 2014 at 4:45 pm

    Let’s hope the Gala Dinner was The Last Supper.

  • DevonBlue says:
    February 19, 2014 at 6:05 pm

    The Gala dinners will mean very little. It is the Chinese way of saying thank you to the people who matter. Food is very important in Chinese society and the sharing of food has many conatations.
    As for the relisting, it is a vehicle for many of the people within the BIH circle to make money. It is true that the Chinese always love a punt, and for a few they have made money. But it is what can happen in the future that really counts. I think we have to wait until the 28th to see what could or might happen.

  • Kiwipete says:
    February 19, 2014 at 7:41 pm

    OP. Why do you think they have to tell us anything, I quote part of your blog:- “then both BLIM and BIH need to talk to us in the public domain with at least a broad outline of how they see the deal working;”
    We all understand, I think, that these people are in it for business reasons alone, and I can’t see them divulging any more information than what they may be legally bound to do.
    A simple analogy being, If you bought your breakfast cereal at the local supermarket, does that then give them the right to know what you are having for lunch and dinner.

    Please keep up the good work.

    • almajir says:
      February 19, 2014 at 8:24 pm

      Your analogy is false.

      Birmingham City have suffered in recent times due to a lack of planning financially – we’ve basically had to negotiate a catastrophe currve, with finances getting tighter and tighter and the club having to be more and more careful in how it invests money.

      With a new company taking 12% and putting two directors on the board, I think it’s only fair that they tell us as well as the BIHL shareholders how they intend to improve the situation at BCFC so it makes a profit, so that it isn’t reliant on transfers to keep itself going and how it’s going to grow as a business. Buying cereal in a supermarket has no effect on the the way the company is run and asking you what you are having for lunch and dinner isn’t connected in the slightest.

  • Shirley Blue says:
    February 19, 2014 at 8:01 pm

    Wonder what the food is like in the Hong Kong version of Winson Green?

  • andy says:
    February 19, 2014 at 10:01 pm

    Peter Pannu has stated that we will be kept more informed on things happening in Hong Kong which affects the football club and I am sure once BLIM have paid their money then Pannu will inform us of their intentions.

  • Kiwipete says:
    February 19, 2014 at 11:23 pm

    Daniel. The point I am trying (Badly) to make is that Morally I agree with you, but in business Morals are not usually at the forefront.

  • tonyd says:
    February 20, 2014 at 3:14 am

    Shirley. I’ve been inside Stanley Prison in HK, but luckily not for long enough to eat there. Still, porridge is porridge…or maybe congee.

  • Blueboy says:
    February 20, 2014 at 7:34 am

    Currently sitting in Starbucks on Queens Rd Central, HK doing a bit of Carson spotting but no luck so far !! Even staying at the Harbourview Hotel on Harbour Rd but guess he’s keeping a low profile.

  • Hong Kong bluenose says:
    February 20, 2014 at 8:33 am

    The Gala dinners is also another way of networking and I would expect that there would have been a lot of networking done with guests and maybe you will find more people investing into the shares for the rest of the year

  • brainchildbluestar says:
    February 22, 2014 at 12:13 pm

    It seems we now all agree that we were wrong and that we now agree Pannu did a great job as is mentioned here that BIHL worked very hard to relist. Thanks Pannu for everything. Now we all know why he has a high salary.

  • brainchildbluestar says:
    February 24, 2014 at 12:30 am

    If it was not for pannu there is no club for any one to enjoy. As he said to Tom ….He is a star. We fans need to recognise that


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